Trading Day: A peace wish and chips

3 days ago 137

ORLANDO, Florida, May 6 : Hopes that a U.S.-Iran peace deal might be imminent propelled global stocks to new highs and sent oil prices tumbling on Wednesday, with the U.S. AI frenzy intensifying on strong earnings and reports of mega spending commitments in the sector.

In my column today, I look at the remarkable resilience of emerging markets to the global energy shock - EM stocks are at a record high, and bond spreads are the tightest in over a decade. If a peace deal in the Middle East is reached, this may well continue. But if not?

If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today.

1. Iran says it is reviewing new US proposal after sources say sides closing in on deal

2. Oil supply shock to worsen as inventories fall further even if conflict ends

3. Stunning US profit strength ignites stocks' charge to record peaks

4. Curbing release of Fed meeting transcripts may improve debate, Warsh says in book

5. US long bonds over 5 per cent - buy or beware?: Mike Dolan

Today's Key Market Moves

• STOCKS: New highs for benchmark MSCI world, emerging market, and Asia ex-Japan indices, South Korea, S&P 500, Nasdaq and others. Europe and Britain's FTSE 100 both +2 per cent.

• SECTORS/SHARES: Nine of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 rise. Tech, communications services, industrials +2 per cent or more. Energy -4 per cent. AMD +19 per cent, Super Micro Computer +25 per cent. Dell +10 per cent, Uber +9 per cent, Nvidia +6 per cent. Chevron -4 per cent.

• FX: Dollar -0.5 per cent, yen spikes to 155/$ for the first time since Iran war started. Big gains for ZAR and CLP, while KRW has its best day this year.

• BONDS: Yields lower across the board. UK yields -10 bps or more, U.S. yields -8 bps at short end to bull flatten the curve.

• COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil slumps 8 per cent, Brent briefly dips below $100. Gold +3 per cent, silver +6 per cent. Average U.S. gasoline price above $4.50/gallon.

Today's Talking Points

* It's vol over

The VIX volatility index, Wall Street's so-called 'fear index', on Wednesday nudged to its lowest level in over three months. It is below where it was when the Iran war started in late February, and significantly down from its war peak.

It's always a conundrum - does lower implied volatility lead to higher stock prices, or vice versa? It doesn't really ...

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