NEW DELHI – In India’s sweltering summer of 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s stumble in a national election signalled that his decade-long rule might be coming to an end. Now, he appears poised to keep power well into the next decade.

Mr Modi’s breakthrough victory last week in a West Bengal election, as well as losses for incumbents in the southern states of Tamil Nadu and Kerala, left his opponents in tatters and extended the reach of his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) beyond its northern strongholds.

A Bloomberg analysis of voting patterns shows Mr Modi, 75, is seeing success with a playbook aimed at restoring the BJP’s parliamentary majority during a national vote due by mid-2029, which would position him to become India’s longest-serving leader.

“Three years is a long time, but I think that the BJP is simply in a very strong position now to go into those elections as the heavy favourite to win a fourth term,” said Mr Michael Kugelman, resident senior fellow for South Asia at the Atlantic Council in Washington. “This is one of Modi’s biggest political wins in quite some time.”

Since taking office in 2014, Mr Modi has expanded his grip on power in part due to his efforts to consolidate the votes of Hindus, who make up about 80 per cent of India’s population but have traditionally been split along caste and regional lines.

That trend appeared to reverse in the 2024 national election, which saw Mr Modi lose his single-party majority as the opposition, including caste-based parties, roared back in Hindu-dominant areas.

But last week’s state election results showed that his bigger vision of uniting the Hindu vote still remains broadly on track.

Mr Modi has successfully reframed the BJP’s campaign