[SINGAPORE] Private-sector economists have turned more optimistic about the Republic’s 2026 growth, with a median expectation of 2.3 per cent in the latest quarterly survey released by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) on Wednesday (Dec 17).

This is up from their 1.9 per cent forecast in the September survey, and in the upper half of the 1 to 3 per cent forecast range issued by the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) in November.

As 2025 draws to a close, full-year forecasts for gross domestic product (GDP) growth have narrowed and risen.

The latest median expectation is 4.1 per cent, a sharp upgrade from 2.4 per cent in the previous survey, driven by manufacturing but with “upgrades seen across all major sectors”.

This is in line with MTI’s forecast of “around 4 per cent”, upgraded in November from an earlier range of 1.5 to 2.5 per cent. This was after Q3 figures came in higher than expected, on trade resilience and strong manufacturing demand, particularly for semiconductors.

For 2025, manufacturing growth is now forecast at 5.4 per cent, up from 0.8 per cent in the last survey. Full-year export growth is expected at 4.5 per cent, up from 2.2 per cent.

For the other sectors, growth forecasts were 4.8 per cent for construction, up from 4.7 per cent; 4.4 per cent for wholesale and retail trade, up from 2.9 per cent; 4.1 per cent for finance and insurance, up from 3.3 per cent, and 0.9 per cent for accommodation and food services, up from 0.5 per cent.

For Q4, respondents expect year-on-year growth of 3.6 per cent. This comes after Q3’s performance of 4.2 per cent far surpassed their forecast of 0.9 per cent.

The findings reflect the views of 20 economists who responded to MAS’s survey of professional forecasters sent out on Nov 21.