Kalshi’s attempt to counter a Roosevelt Institute analysis of retail trading losses has triggered a wider public dispute, drawing criticism from gambling industry figures and prediction market observers. What began as a disagreement over research methods has changed into questions about how the company distinguishes professional trading firms from everyday customers when discussing activity on its platform.

The study takes ‘maker’ and ‘taker’ data from the Kalshi API and conflates these terms with ‘professional’ and ‘casual’ users. This is not accurate, and invalidates the claims of the study. – Kalshi

The Roosevelt Institute estimated that ordinary users of Kalshi and Polymarket together lost about $583.5 million through March 2025. Of that total, roughly $244.5 million was attributed to Kalshi. The report also concluded that about 86% of Kalshi traders lost money, while approximately 1% of users collected nearly 80% of overall profits.

Kalshi rejected those conclusions and argued the underlying analysis incorrectly grouped institutional market makers with retail participants. The company said professional market makers and other liquidity providers generate about 97% of trading volume, leaving retail customers responsible for only around 3%. Because of that, Kalshi argued the report assigned institutional losses to ordinary users and produced what it described as an inaccurate estimate of retail losses.

Critics argue Kalshi applies inconsistent customer...