BIRMINGHAM, England: Within less than 24 hours, United States President Donald Trump went from threatening that Iran’s “whole civilisation will die tonight” to announcing a two-week ceasefire and that “this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!!”. 

By the end of Wednesday (Apr 8), that golden vision was behind the smoke of massive Israeli bombardment of Lebanon. This exposed a major flaw in Mr Trump’s deal with Iran – no explicit inclusion of Israel – and laid bare just how his administration lacks a coherent strategy for the Middle East as a whole.

Iran called Israeli attacks in Lebanon a “grave violation” of the deal and warned of “strong responses”. 

The US and Israel have insisted the ceasefire did not include Lebanon. Mr Trump called it a “separate skirmish”, keeping Lebanon distinct from Iran while urging Israel to scale back its attacks to help with US-Iran peace talks over the weekend. 

All this buys him time to secure a half-way intact deal and walk away from an unpopular war.

DIFFERING WAR GOALS

It is unsurprising that Lebanon has become a major flashpoint. 

First, Israel’s objectives do not align well with Mr Trump’s war goals that have been shifting since the first US strikes on Feb 28.

The US president now seems more concerned with the economic backlash – domestic pump prices, consumer inflation and the volatile stock market. This could explain why he readily agreed to a truce that leaves him in a much weaker negotiation position. If the Strait of Hormuz reopens, it will make it more difficult for him to restart the war. 

Israel, by contrast, views the war as an existential conflict. The minimum victory from an Israeli perspective is a substantially weakened regime in Tehran, deprived of its current military capabilities, of its ...