Catastrophic storms to test China's resilience in 2026, scientists warn

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SHANGHAI/BEIJING, July 8 - The floodwaters that ravaged southern China this week look set to expand to other provinces with the imminent arrival of Super Typhoon Bavi, with scientists warning extreme weather would only grow more frequent this year.

The expected weather systems will be sure to test the resilience of the country's densely populated cities and rural communities.

China's National Climate Center expects up to six typhoons to form in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea in July, more than the average of 3.8. Of these storms, up to three could make landfall, above the norm of 1.8. The intensity of the cyclones will also be stronger, it said.

Scientists say climate change is increasingly exposing the world's second-largest economy to destructive weather events, with this year of particular concern due to the expected emergence of the El Nino weather pattern, which could drive up temperatures and fuel more intense typhoons, as hurricanes are known in the Asia-Pacific region.

China is bracing for Super Typhoon Bavi on Saturday, the second tropical cyclone to arrive in a week. Measuring more than 1,000 km (621 miles) in diameter, Bavi briefly made landfall on Monday over the U.S. island of Rota in the Western Pacific with winds in excess of 290 kph (180 mph).

Last week, Typhoon Maysak made landfall on China's southernmost island province of Hainan and quickly swept into the Chinese region of Guangxi, where the storm wreaked the most havoc. The remnants of Maysak also spawned at least two inland tornadoes in central China.

"The problem with these events is that they're just increasing," said Benjamin Horton, dean of the School of Energy and Environment at City University of Hong Kong.

The magnitude of the events is increasing and there is no time to recover and become resilient, warned Horton, who expects more frequent and more intense cyclones later this year to drop unprecedented amounts of rainfall, triggering floods, landslides, crop damage and a loss of lives.

"This is just going to repeat and repeat and repeat," he said.

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